About 20,000 fewer military ballots were cast by mail from overseas in the weeks leading up to this year's election than in 2020, according to data obtained by Military.com.
By the week before Tuesday's election, 36,898 overseas military ballots had been mailed in, as tracked by a mailing label unique to military ballots, compared to the 57,049 that were cast in the same time frame in 2020.
While representing only partial data on the total number of military voters this year, the number for ballots mailed from overseas in the weeks prior to the election provides a snapshot of participation by service members and their families in a year in which military ballots became a political football ahead of Election Day.
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Complete numbers on 2024's military voters, including how they were distributed geographically, won't be available until states submit data to federal authorities after the states are done counting every vote. But postal agencies are able to track military ballots sent in from overseas using what's called the Label 11-DOD, which was created to provide military voters an expedited way to mail in their ballots.
Depending on the state, military voters can also submit their ballots by email, fax or other electronic means but, historically, mailing is the most common way service members send their ballots back. For example, in 2020, about 76.4% of service members who voted absentee submitted their ballots by mail, according to the Election Assistance Commission's post-2020 election report.
In total in 2020, about 330,000 uniformed service members voted by absentee ballot, according to the commission.
In addition to being lower than in 2020, the number of mailed overseas military ballots cast ahead of this year's election also dropped off from 2016. That year, there were 49,413 overseas military ballots mailed with the Label 11-DOD tracking label in the weeks leading up to the election.
The data on military ballots mailed from overseas for this year, 2020 and 2016 was obtained by Military.com from a source who requested anonymity to disclose information on a politically sensitive topic.
This year's number is a big increase from the 2022 congressional elections, but it is common for voter turnout in presidential election years to eclipse midterm elections.
The data on this year's election comes as feared post-election challenges of ballots cast by service members, their families and other U.S. citizens overseas did not materialize after former President Donald Trump secured a relatively quick victory to return to the White House.
Prior to the election, Republicans in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan -- all key swing states -- sued to stop military and overseas ballots from being counted as part of a broader effort to lay the groundwork to challenge the election results if Trump lost.
All three lawsuits were dismissed by judges. But military family advocates had warned that just the act of filing the lawsuits could have a chilling effect on military voter turnout this year since it could discourage service members and their families from voting if they thought their votes wouldn't count.
"We know that when there is a lack of confidence in voting, there is less likelihood to vote," Khiet Ho, a Marine Corps spouse who is the lead researcher at Secure Families Initiative, a military families organization that in part works to expand military voting, told Military.com in October. "And so these lawsuits in effect are going to decrease even more military service members and military family members from voting."
While Trump's win in the presidential race was called by The Associated Press the morning after the election, several congressional races were still too close to call on Friday, including more than a dozen involving veterans. Absentee ballots, including those cast by military voters, are often among the last counted, meaning those votes could be decisive in the remaining uncalled races.
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